What xG measures
Every shot is given a value between 0 and 1: the chance that a typical shot from that position and situation ends up as a goal. A penalty is worth far more than a long-range shot. Add up a player's shots and you get his expected goals, or xG.
Expected assists (xA) work the same way for the passes that lead to shots.
Why it helps in FPL
- Spotting players before they haul: a forward with high xG but few goals is getting good chances. If he keeps getting them, the goals often follow.
- Avoiding false form: a player who scored three long-range screamers from very little xG may struggle to keep it up.
- Judging defences: teams that concede lots of expected goals are good opponents to target with your attackers.
What xG can't tell you
- It doesn't account for minutes. A player with good xG who gets subbed off early will still score fewer FPL points.
- Small samples mislead. Three or four matches is a short window, so compare over several gameweeks.
- Elite finishers can beat their xG for a long time, and poor finishers can stay below it.
Putting it together
Use xG alongside fixtures, minutes and set-piece duties, not on its own. A player with strong xG, guaranteed minutes and an easy run on our fixture grid is usually a better buy than one with a big recent haul from very few chances. Our captain picks use FPL's own expected points, which already include this kind of underlying data.
Last updated October 2026.